By-Khondkar Abdus Saleque
Increasing concern of adverse impact of global warming due to green house gas emission and rising price of non renewable fossil fuels are making the countries of East and South Asia to lean towards Nuclear power generation. Some countries have no basic energy of their own. They rely exclusively on imported energy. Some have their own energy. But these are not enough to fuel expanding economy.
The economy of countries like China, India is booming. To keep pace with rapid economic growth they need to increase the electricity generation capacity. Nuclear power being environment friendly the countries are endeavoring to set up the nuclear plants. Countries in the East and South Asia are planning and building new power reactors to meet their increasing demands of electricity.
There are over 109 nuclear power reactors in operation, 18 under construction and plans to build about a further 110.China, Japan, South Korea and India are the major players of the nuclear option. The increase in nuclear share will relieve the traditional fossil fuels from rapid depletion and will be a useful step to reduce GHG emission. However, people are apprehensive of the safety of the operation of the plants and disposal of nuclear wastes. There will be some concern of misusing the nuclear technology to produce nuclear bombs by rouge countries. But effective policing of the IAEA and responsible actions of major nuclear countries may keep these under control.
A recent Nuclear Issue Briefing Paper indicates that through to 2010 projected new generation capacity in the region is 38GWe per year. From 2010 to 2020 the new generation capacity increase will be 56 GWe/yr.This is about 36% of the world’s new capacity (current world capacity is about 3500GWe, of which 368 GWe is nuclear). In addition to the active nuclear reactors, under implementation and planned ones there are about 56 research reactors in 14 countries of the region. Only Singapore and New Zealand of the Pacific Rim countries are without any kind of nuclear research.
Let us discuss the situation of different countries as described in the briefing paper.
Japan:
Japan does not have any basic energy resource. It relies absolutely on imported LNG and oil from different countries. So Japanese had to rely a great deal on Nuclear power generation notwithstanding the catastrophic destruction of Hiroshima and Nagasaki from atom bombs. A few days earlier an earth quake caused some damage to a nuclear plant and led to its closure. About 29 % of Japanese power is generated from nuclear plants.55 units are in operation, 2 are under construction, 11 planned. Japan has 17 research reactors.
The recent reactors are all of third generation type having modern safety systems. Japan is eyeing on doubling its nuclear capacity to 90GWe by 2050 to meet its obligation for limiting GHG under Kyoto protocol. Japan has a high temperature test reactor which has reached 950 Degree Celsius high enough to enable thermo chemical production of hydrogen. Japan plans to use some 20GW of nuclear heat for hydrogen production by 2050. The first commercial plant will be start in 2025.
Republic of Korea (ROK):
About 45% of Korea’s power requirement is met from nuclear plants. Like Japan Korea also do not have any basic energy source. No oil, no gas. It has 20 nuclear reactors in operation, 1 under construction, 7 planned. It also has 2 research reactors. It has a plan to expand to 28 reactors and include advanced reactor design and achieve 60% nuclear power supply 2035. Korea has strong alliance with US to expand its nuclear generation capability. It has a US$ 1 billion plan for R& D and demonstration program to produce commercial hydrogen utilizing nuclear heat by 2020.
India:
India has proceeded to sign an accord with US for expanding its nuclear power generation capability. It has attained nuclear arms production capacity and successfully tested nuclear devices. It has not signed nuclear non proliferation treaty. It has 15 units in operation, 8 under construction, 24 planned and has also 5 research reactors. Nuclear power currently supplies about 4% of its total power requirement. It has achieved independence in its nuclear fuel cycle.
To fuel its rapidly growing economy India needs massive expansion of power generation. But considering the environmental impact can not go for more coal plants. It does not have enough oil and gas of its own. Neither has it assured access to regional or international energy source. So it is looking forward to expand its nuclear generation to comfort its energy security. By 2020 it is targeting an increase to 20GWe by setting up another 24 units. India is pioneer in developing thorium fuel cycle, and has several advanced facilities related to this.
China:
China is has the most expanding economy. Its power demand continues to expand @8% per year. It is trying every option to secure assured growth of power generation. It has mostly coal plants. It is one of the major polluter. But now it has realized the adverse impact and opting for environmental friendly power generation. It has significant reserve of oil and gas. But to fuel its enormous growth it is aggressively accessing regional and international resources. It has got good working relation with Iran. China is setting up energy import projects with Russia. Chinese companies are very active in Africa.
It is also exploring possibilities of gas import from Myanmar. It is also expanding its nuclear power generation. 10 units are already in operation. It has 5 more under construction, 13 planned and 50 proposed. National plan indicates 40GWe by 2020and 240 GWe by 2050.China has also built a small high temperature gas cooled reactor with pebble bed fuel in 2000. A commercial prototype HTR is expected to start by 2010.It is also partnering with ROK to produce hydrogen.
Pakistan:
Pakistan meets about 3% of its power demand through nuclear plants. It started its second plant in 2000 and the third supplied by China is under construction. It has 2 active reactors, 1 under construction, 2 planned. It also has 1 research reactor. It has a plan to expand capacity to 7.5 GWe by 2030.
Taiwan:
Taiwan meets 20% of its electricity demand from nuclear plants. It has 6 reactors in operation, 2 under construction. The plants under construction are third generation advanced plant.
North Korea:
North Korea partially built 2 units but abandoned construction at a certain stage. It was very close to commission one small reactor but concern focused on attempts to develop illicit weapons capability. Subsequently the construction halted.
Countries like Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam and Bangladesh have research reactors and are planning to set up nuclear reactors to produce electricity.
Electricity is the dynamo of economic growth. South and East Asian countries are very thickly populated. To sustain the GDP growth the countries will have to develop the power generation at the same pace. At the same time they have to remain conscious of global warming and GHG emissions. There will be little growth of coal plants. The environmental restrictions imposed on coal plants will make these very expensive. Yet some countries may have little other choice. There may be growth of Natural Gas based plants in some countries.
But that resource is also not very abundant. Natural gas is too valuable to be burnt for power generation. It has other valuable use options. These areas have great hydro potential. But relocation of affected people in thickly populated countries and other environmental issues are restricting growth of Hydro plants. Many countries are aggressively approaching Nuclear power plant option. But people are apprehensive of safety and waste disposal issues.
Third generation Nuclear plants are very safe. It addresses major safety concerns and several contingency measures. If we go for proper technology there are very little worries. The plants have high capital costs but minimum operating expenses. Waste treatment and disposal can also be very safe. If the Nuclear Programs are properly planned and effectively managed by appropriate professionals there are little worries.
Bangladesh like the regional countries has taken up plans to set up nuclear plants. It has offers from ROK. Some people are arising concern about safety. Believe us the modern plants are very safe. If we can have long term contracts with the suppliers for enriched uranium and can plan for proper waste disposal we must proceed aggressively for nuclear generation. We must also ensure that we have very competent and skilled professional group to operate the plants.
About 1000MW Nuclear power in 3-5 years will be great for us. We need power to power our rural economy. The present situation is terrible. We can not let it continue like this. We must explore and exploit all viable options to generate power and make it available for our very hard working and innovative work force.
